As anyone can see, Israel’s course of action in Syria is aimed at preventing Iranian entrenchment there. Its strategy is understandable but impractical. This does not appear to bother Israel, which prides itself on solving complex problems by one simple means: the Air Force. If there is no drinking water in Gaza, no hospitals, no employment, and Hamas is in charge there, Israel’s panacea is to bash them from the air. And what is right for Gaza is right for Syria too. In fact, the similarity is clear. Chaos is the default position for those two disorganized entities. The Air Force has pounded Gaza for years, utilizing a vague “bank” of targets to push a distinct message: Quiet in exchange for quiet. However, the chaos in Gaza is only getting worse, and larger problems loom.

The downing of the Russian spy plane by Syrian air defenses shows that when facing the Russians, Israel’s magic drug is not effective. This time Netanyahu is not facing Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, but Vladimir Putin. The Israeli assumption has been that it shares a common interest with Russia; both want the Iranians and Hezbollah out of Syria. Ergo, hammering Iranian targets there serves Russia’s interest, and the more, the better.

Sharing a “common interest” is an Israeli concept (the Russians have not used this term). Even in the case of downing the Russian surveillance plane, the Israelis were sure Putin would understand and forgive. They received a cold shower, however, when the Russians placed the blame squarely on Israel’s shoulders, claiming it was lying. Russia announced in retaliation that it would supply Damascus with four S-300 batteries within two weeks, giving the Syrians the capacity to down any aircraft not just in their own air space or Lebanon’s but in Israel’s too.

The connection between Russian and Israeli interests in Syria is elusive, if not contradictory. The Russians want to stabilize the situation, and they know that they cannot do so without the consent of all parties involved in the Syrian conflict, including the US, Turkey, Israel and especially Iran. The claim that the Russians want Iran out of Syria is based on the idea that the former would prefer to be the sole rulers there. Mere preference, though, is not enough in politics, even when Russia is the one that prefers. We might as well say that Israel would prefer to see all Arabs disappear. In reality, the Iranians were in Syria long before Putin sent his air force to save Assad, and there is no sign that they are leaving any time soon. They are also pulling the strings in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, so Syria is just one piece in their game.

Moreover, even after President Trump abandoned the nuclear agreement with Iran, and despite Netanyahu’s supplications, the Russians continue sticking to the Iran nuclear deal while ignoring the American boycott. How can we say that Russia and Israel share the same strategic interest when, on an issue as important as the nuclear agreement, Putin opposes Netanyahu? The most one can say is that the Russians until now have put up with Israeli strikes on Syrian soil, expressing neither support nor dissatisfaction.

But times, it seems, are a’changin’. What Israel did while civil war raged in Syria is forbidden now that hostilities are winding down. Putin has reached understandings with the concerned parties about Syria’s future. Turkey has agreed to a demilitarized zone in Idlib in order to distance the Kurdish forces from its border. Israel lives with a Syrian-dominated, Iran-free security zone on the Golan Heights. The Russians get a seaport in Tartus and a military airport in western Syria. Iran’s sphere of influence includes territory close to Lebanon, Iraq, and Damascus, plus fat contracts for the rehabilitation of the Syrian infrastructure. From here on in, please do not disturb. In Russia’s view, if Israel has refrained from bombing Lebanon because of understandings with Hezbollah, it should also stop bombing Syria, which has become a de facto Russian protectorate.

The mess has another side to it, though. Israel’s assumed strategic partnership with Putin places it in stark contradiction to American interests in Syria. True, Trump wants Iran out of there, but he won’t lift a finger to help Russia consolidate its position. Israel was indirectly involved in arrangements limiting the Turkish and Iranian presence in Syria. The United States was not included among the arrangers, although it controls wide swaths of land in the northeast, a third of Syria, where oil wells and water resources are located. America’s UN representative Nikky Hailey said in an interview on September 23: “We will not pay for (Syrian) reconstruction to help Russia get out when this is their problem.” In other words, the US desires Russian entanglement in Syria and wants to extract a high price for the massacres and destruction that Russia perpetrated.

When the Obama and Trump administrations strongly condemned Russia’s murderous and indiscriminate bombings in Syria, Israel remained silent. This reflected a so-called “balanced and wise position” that it was advisable not to meddle in the Syrian civil war. When Putin sent his air force into battle and leveled Aleppo, Israel still remained silent. And when Putin defended Assad’s frequent use of chemical weapons, Israel was silent.

Israeli silence was a critical factor in helping Russia to finish the job and crush the opposition to Assad. Israel was happy about Russian intervention and wanted a strong landlord with whom understandings could be brokered. Israel also returned to the old arrangement with the Damascus regime: stopping aid to the rebels and accepting the return of the Syrian army to the Golan Heights. The 200-plus bombing raids deep inside Syria have been the quid pro quo that Netanyahu got from Putin in exchange for his silence. The debt has now been paid, Russia opens a new chapter, and Israel must adapt itself to the changing reality.

Netanyahu understands that the Russian plane incident has created a new reality. The strategic partnership with Putin is rapidly mutating into a strategic confrontation. Israelis can say that Russia’s report about the circumstances of the incident is dubious, and that the total rejection of Israel’s version stems from internal tensions. There is indeed growing domestic criticism of Putin because he has raised the retirement age. However, in reality, the Syrian abscess is putting pressure on Russia; it endangers Putin’s status far more than domestic pension problems. At the same time, the US openly declares its hope that Russia will fail in Syria, and it wants to reduce the old bear to its proper post-Cold-War proportions.

Netanyahu faces a dilemma. Should he support the Americans and enter into confrontation with the Russians? Or should he help Putin stabilize the Syrian situation? Or is there a way to dance at both weddings as he used to do? If the Israeli cabinet decides to resume air strikes as if nothing has happened, it could be a serious strategic mistake. It might involve Israel in the last kind of war it would ever want. Even with the best air force in the world, Israel has set itself an unattainable strategic goal. Leaving Assad in power was the original sin, and now the price will be paid.

* Translated from the Hebrew by Robert Goldman

The post Fateful misconception: Israel’s Russia mistake first appeared on Da'am Party: One state - Green Economy.

“The government is dragging us into war,” cautioned Maj. Gen. (res.) Amiram Levin in Yediot Aharonot (October 22), warning that “any person with eyes in his head must mobilize to end this government’s term before we reach a disaster.” It seems that Levin is asking Israelis to give more than they can. Netanyahu is popular, and apparently those who have “eyes in their heads” are a minority. Further, it is doubtful whether Levin’s eyes were always open. If they were, he might have awakened much earlier when there was still time to prevent the calamity. The Syrian crisis was not born last week.

To be precise, the process leading to war began on September 14, 2013, the day that John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov signed an agreement to dismantle the chemical weapons in Syria. This agreement saved Assad from an American strike that could have led to his overthrow and would have hindered the spread of Iranian influence in Syria. Obama had stated that the use of chemical weapons would cross a “red line.” Assad deliberately crossed it with a chemical attack in Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus, where the death toll exceeded 1,300 civilians. But Obama backtracked, Assad survived, and only four years later Netanyahu was forced to declare “We will not allow Iran to establish itself on our northern border.” Netanyahu, like others in Israel, had failed to foresee what would await Israel, and with it, the entire world.

Following the chemical agreement between Kerry and Lavrov, the defense establishment stopped distributing gas masks, and Israel breathed a sigh of relief. The deal looked very good to Israel, but it was very bad for the Syrian people. But who cared? Everyone was satisfied: Obama sidestepped a potentially unpopular military intervention in Syria, Russia saved its ally, and Israel benefited twofold: the strategic threat of chemical weapons was eliminated, and the civil war could be expected to continue indefinitely. A war in which Syria and the Arab world are smashed to smithereens is viewed by Netanyahu as a strategic plus. The government’s official position was: “We will not interfere in the Syrian civil war.” After all, why intervene when the Syrians are doing such a good job? Worse still, in December 2016, apparently under Russian pressure, Netanyahu even instructed Israel’s UN delegation to abstain from a vote to investigate crimes against humanity committed in Syria.

However, the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Agreement that saved Assad triggered two events that played into Iranian hands. The deal between the United States and Russia did avert an American attack on Syria at the last minute, but it also put an end to expectations that the West would deliver Syrian citizens from a terrible massacre. It allowed the Assad regime to slaughter its own people by barrel-bombing helpless civilians. Desperation caused the Syrian democratic opposition to retreat, which helped ISIS. Millions of Syrian refugees fled to Europe, and in response to right-wing and xenophobic pressure there, the British prime minister resigned following his defeat in the Brexit vote. A few months later, Clinton lost to Trump.

The agreement banning Syria’s chemical weapons had two further ramifications: it gave Russia total guardianship over Syria and it paved the way for the nuclear deal with Iran. Thus Netanyahu’s troubles began. He left no stone unturned to block the deal with Iran, including a pathos-filled speech before the US Congress, but he failed. Obama was resolved to pivot away from the Middle East, and for that reason, Netanyahu had no choice but to reach an understanding with the Russians. Then came Trump. Despite his harsh statements against Iran and the nuclear deal, he failed to take firm action, even cooperating with Iran in the war against ISIS in Mosul. Most recently, the US turned its back on the Kurds when the Iraqi army, along with militias funded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, took control of Kirkuk in northern Iraq, expelling the Kurdish Peshmerga troops from the city.

Moreover, the Israeli government chose to remain silent when Putin decided to commit the entire weight of his army to save Assad’s regime in September 2015. The Russian Air Force completely demolished Aleppo, bombed hospitals, markets and schools in order to crush the anti-Assad rebels. While Russian planes did the job from the air, the Shiite militias and Hezbollah put boots on the ground and occupied the area, killing indiscriminately. For some time, Iran has been a partner of the United States in Iraq and, at the same time, a collaborator with Russia in Syria. The Americans have become accustomed to Russian war crimes in Syria.

When Russian warplanes crushed Aleppo, Netanyahu traveled to Moscow, not to dissuade Putin from committing crimes against humanity, but to arrive at an understanding with the new landlord in Syria. After their meeting, Netanyahu declared, “I have made clear our policy to thwart arms transfers in various ways, as well as Iran’s attempts to establish a second terror front against us. I stated clearly that we would take action against this.” He added, “There was no opposition to this. Whatever Russia’s intention in Syria, he [Russia] will not be part of Iran’s aggressive activity against us.”

Despite all the coordination, declarations, and “understandings” with Putin, Iran has solidified its position in Syria, as well as in Iraq, in accordance with agreements signed with the Russians and Turks in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, which I wrote about in an earlier article. Astana is a further step toward the empowerment of the so-called Russian-Iranian-Turkish axis in Syria, with the Damascus region going to Tehran. Iran has invested a great deal of money and soldiers in Syria, and like Russia, it wishes to enjoy the fruits of the victory.

Netanyahu was not invited to Astana, and his American friends had to be satisfied with the status of observer. So all that was left for Netanyahu was to plead with the Russians to consider Israeli interests and not allow a permanent Iranian presence in Syria. But this is unrealistic. Russia’s control of Syria depends on its partnership with Iran. Without Iranian-Shiite militias and Hezbollah, Russia has no hold on the ground. Assad’s army is in shambles, and without Iranian fighters, Assad has no control.

The recent meeting in Damascus between the Syrian and Iranian chiefs of staff was intended to make clear to Israel that the Iranian presence in Syria is not temporary, and that it will continue as long as Assad is in power. Thus what began with Israeli non-intervention in Syria, followed by close coordination with the Russians, has now turned into a policy of growing intervention in an attempt to influence Syria’s future. Those who ignored Assad’s crimes, seeking to benefit from genocide and civil war, are now paying the price of their short-sightedness and evil. And do not, by the way, blame Netanyahu alone. Silence in the face of genocide, and in the face of the biggest refugee tragedy since World War II, enjoyed a wall-to-wall consensus here. In the entire Israeli establishment, coalition and opposition alike, no one can claim to have clean hands.

• Translated from the Hebrew by Robert Goldman

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The post Israel is being dragged into the Syrian war first appeared on Da'am Party: One state - Green Economy.