The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is good news for the Arab nations and for all freedom seekers around the globe. Since the 2011 outbreak of the Arab Spring in Syria, Da’am Party has unequivocally supported the popular struggle to overthrow Assad’s brutal regime. During that time, the party organized protests in front of the Russian embassy in Tel Aviv and during the visit of the Russian Prime Minister to Israel, demanding an end to the Syrian genocide.

In 2014, Da’am Party initiated the “Committee for Solidarity with the Syrian People,” which included over 50 Jewish and Arab figures. The committee held speaking panels and raised funds for Syrian refugee children, which were transferred to them through Save the Children.

The timing of Assad’s regime fall is no coincidence. After more than 13 years of oppression, which led to the displacement of 13 million Syrian citizens, the killing of half a million people, and the imprisonment and torture of hundreds of thousands, regime opponents managed to overthrow it almost without a fight. The final disintegration of the Syrian regime can be attributed to Hamas’s terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, which was orchestrated and supported by Iran—the patron of both Hamas and Assad’s regime.

The Da’am Party strongly condemned the barbaric attack of Hamas, which aligned itself with the Iranian axis and sought to extinguish the state of Israel, and expressed support for Israel’s right to defend itself. Our stance against Iran and its proxies reflects our commitment to the freedom of Arab nations, above all the Palestinian people, who have long suffered from displacement and suffering. We argue that the struggle for progress, democracy, and human rights in the region requires Israel to end its political intransigence, but such progress will not be possible without the defeat of the Iranian axis, which seeks to establish an aggressive and extremist theocratic rule in the region that views Israel as its target for destruction.

Over recent decades, under the pretext of “liberating Jerusalem,” Iranian aggression has gained momentum. Iran has nurtured and armed its proxies —Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas—who have wreaked havoc and destroyed the lives of millions in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Iran also created a “ring of fire” around Israel and positioned itself as a regional power. Its objectives, however were entirely detached from the needs of the peoples who became hostages of the Iranian regime.

The collapse of Assad’s regime began with the confrontation between Iran and Israel on October 7, 2023. The decisive event in this process, which paved the way for the Syrian revolutionaries, was undoubtedly the assassination of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah a year later, on September 27, 2024. Israel’s decision to eliminate Nasrallah, who played a prominent role in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, sent a clear signal to the Lebanese and Syrians that the organizations tied to the Iranian axis, including Iran itself, are not invincible.

The joy expressed in videos from liberated areas of Syria following Israel’s killing of Nasrallah was striking. The Syrian people knew Hezbollah fighters and their revered leader Nasrallah as perpetrators of some of the most heinous crimes against the residents of Syrian towns and cities such as Qusayr, Madaya, Zabadani, and many others. Hezbollah’s acts of oppression included murder, rape, systematic starvation, and torture. The celebrations in Syria over Nasrallah’s death reflected the Syrian people’s view of Hezbollah and Iran as their enemies and their approval of Israel’s fight against them.

In Lebanon, a broad front emerged in opposition to the “Support for Gaza War” launched unilaterally by Hezbollah on October 8, 2023, without any deliberation in parliament. The Lebanese people clearly understood that this war would bring devastation to Lebanon, hollow out the country’s institutions, and turn Lebanon into an Iranian proxy state serving as a base for endless future wars against Israel.

The success of the rebels in toppling the regime in Damascus can be attributed to several factors, including the weakening of Hezbollah and its defeat in the war against Israel; the failure of Hamas; the blows suffered by Iran; and Russia’s entanglement in its aggressive war against Ukraine. The U.S. and Western Europe maintained relations with Russia even after 2015. The tacit acceptance of Russia’s murderous airstrikes on Aleppo (the second city of importance in Syria) in 2015, aimed at saving Assad’s regime, was later interpreted by Putin as a green light to invade Ukraine, with little expectation of serious Western opposition.

However, a decade of Russian-Iranian occupation in Syria failed to stabilize Assad’s regime. The destruction of the economy, reliance on a Narco-economy, and rampant government corruption left extreme oppression as the regime’s sole guarantee for survival. Syria, like Lebanon, became a failed state, unable to protect its citizens or provide for their most fundamental needs.

Life for Syrians, including those from groups that once supported the regime, turned into a nightmare. In 2011, when the Syrian uprising began as part of the democratic Arab Spring, the regime portrayed itself as the sole bulwark against jihadist forces threatening secular life, garnering support from minorities and residents of major cities. This time, however, during the ten days leading up to the regime’s collapse, it became evident that this support base had completely eroded. As the rebel forces advanced toward Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus, they were greeted with cheers and celebrations by the local residents. Fifty-four years of the Assad dynasty rule in Syria had united the Syrian people against it.

The fall of the Syrian regime is a historic event that shakes the foundations of all authoritarian Arab regimes in the Middle East. These regimes had welcomed Assad back into their fold over the past year, normalizing relations with him. The United Arab Emirates, with the support of the U.S. administration, played a leading role in this normalization effort. For all of them, Bashar al-Assad’s downfall signifies that the Arab Spring has not yet had its final say.

For the Da’am Party, the revolutionary wave of the Arab Spring in 2011–2012 reflected a profound historical shift, embodying the Arab peoples’ aspirations for democracy. We rejected the views that claimed it was a mere fleeting event serving the interests of extremist Islamist forces. We interpreted the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and later in Lebanon and Iraq, as a new era in which the peoples of the region seek their place in the modern 21st-century world. After years of tyranny, they want to share in the achievements of progress and the social, economic, political, and cultural openness that other world nations enjoy. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a critical milestone in the collapse of the entire Iranian axis. It will have a particularly significant impact on Hezbollah, which will no longer be able to operate as an armed militia alongside the Lebanese state.

The regime’s fall also delivers a severe blow to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and to Iran’s broader project, which has leveraged hostility toward Israel and calls for its destruction as an effective tool for gaining popular support. This defeat will have direct consequences on the Iranian political arena. The damage to the prestige and status of the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s militant force, will inevitably strengthen the civil reformist movement.

If the Iranian regime wishes to survive following Syria’s collapse, it must abandon the idea of exporting the Shiite revolution and dominating Arab states under the pretext of “liberating Jerusalem.” Instead, it must redirect its efforts toward rebuilding the Iranian state, society, and economy.

As for Russia, that was “invited” to Syria by Assad, it has lost all its assets in Syria, from the Khmeimim airbase to the Tartus naval base. This situation will have far-reaching consequences for Russia’s prestige as a military power and for its actions in Ukraine.

Although Israel’s actions over the past 14 months did not reflect a coherent plan, they played a decisive role in the fall of Assad’s regime. Israel was caught off guard when Hamas launched “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, 2023. Despite the bitter failure it experienced that day, Israel demonstrated its resilience to itself and to the world. This stands in stark contrast to Nasrallah’s claims that Israel’s power is illusory and comparable to a “spider web.” Backed by overwhelming support from its citizens, its economic, social, military, and technological capabilities, in addition to generous U.S. military and economic support, Israel managed to reverse the equation. Fighting on multiple fronts, Israel proved that the Iranian axis is the weaker force.

As the Syrian people embark on the long and arduous journey of internal reconstruction, it is vital for Israel to cease all interference in their affairs, allowing them to rebuild their political, social, and economic lives according to their own will.

This war, however, came at an unbearable cost, especially for the Palestinian people, who paid a devastating price: tens of thousands killed and injured, many of them women and children, widespread hunger, and the internal multi-time displacement of over two million Gaza residents. Also, the West Bank faced a severe crisis, exemplified by the closure of checkpoints, leaving 200,000 workers without a livelihood. The Lebanese people suffered immensely, with countless homes destroyed, civilians displaced, and many lives lost. It is important to remember that this tectonic upheaval was triggered by Hamas’ reckless and murderous actions, including mass killings, rapes, and the abduction of civilians—among them elderly people, women, and children—who remain hostages to this day. None of them ever saw a representative of the red cross.

All of this could have been avoided if Israel had acted differently. The Iranian axis could have been dismantled earlier had Israel chosen to support the democratic forces in Syria against the regime. When the Syrian people rose up in 2011, Israel chose to watch from the side-lines, preferring to maintain the status quo with the “familiar enemy,” Bashar al-Assad. Israel allowed the massive intervention of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in support of Assad. The result was the bolstering of Iranian power in Syria and the arming of Hezbollah, which grew into a formidable force and joined Hamas in the attacks of October 8, 2023.

However, the original sin of Israel, which led to the devastating war of October 2023, lies in its decades-long refusal to reach a just political solution to the Palestinian issue. Israel systematically undermined the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and sought to deepen internal Palestinian divisions by providing economic support to Hamas. Due to the blindness of its political and military establishment, Israel adopted an approach that viewed Hamas as a strong but deterred force—a sort of guarantee for maintaining the status quo, particularly in the absence of any significant global pressure for a political resolution. For years, Israel turned a blind eye as Hamas built its military strength, using the generous aid it received to boost its missile industry and construct a network of tunnels designed for future attacks.

The fall of the Syrian regime directly serves Israel’s security interests, as it cuts off Iran’s military supply routes to Hezbollah through Syria. Iran’s “ring of fire” around Israel has collapsed. At the same time, Israel watches the dramatic developments in Syria with suspicion and concern. The Israeli political and security leadership—spanning both the coalition and opposition—views these events through a purely military lens. Their actions focus on damage control, anticipating the potential emergence of rogue elements seeking to act against Israel during Syria’s transition period.

From the Syrian people’s perspective, Iran and Russia are their primary enemies—not Israel. The Syrian rebels understand their victory is partly owed to Israel’s military superiority in its campaign against Iran. Today, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq are fragile, fragmented states. Rebuilding these nations after the systematic destruction caused by Iranian occupation will take a long time.

As the Syrian people embark on the long and arduous journey of internal reconstruction, it is vital for Israel to cease all interference in their affairs, allowing them to rebuild their political, social, and economic lives according to their own will. The same principle applies to Lebanon’s rehabilitation. Neither Syria nor Lebanon currently poses a threat to Israel. All they seek is to heal the deep wounds inflicted by the Iranian regime and its allies—Assad’s regime and Hezbollah.

Within Israel, there is much to hold Prime Minister Netanyahu accountable for. The Lebanese journalist Fares Khashan was correct when he tweeted on Sunday, December 8, that “Bashar al-Assad is a far greater criminal than Netanyahu. Assad committed crimes against his own people, while Netanyahu acted against an external enemy that threatened to annihilate Israel.”

While Assad’s regime was worse, this does not absolve Netanyahu of being the most incompetent prime minister in Israel’s history. He supported and bolstered Hamas, systematically obstructing any political resolution with the Palestinians. His refusal to pursue a political solution gave Iran an opening to present itself as “the protector” of the Palestinian people. Netanyahu deepened the occupation and perpetuated an apartheid regime that denies 5 million Palestinians basic human and civil rights.

He failed to protect Israeli citizens from the horrific massacres perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, leaving defenceless Israelis vulnerable to unimaginable violence. Netanyahu also ushered openly racist parties into his government, focusing his efforts on undermining Israel’s democratic system and attempting a judicial coup to shield himself from the criminal charges he faces. Now that fighting has diminished, and a new phase in his trial begun, he is giving a new green light for the judicial coup to advance.  In recent years, Netanyahu has adopted a mantra akin to Assad’s: “It’s me or the state burns down.”

In the aftermath of the devastating war, all peoples of the region—particularly the Palestinian people—must reassess their approach to the conflict. Support for armed struggle, the “resistance axis,” and violence has led the region and the Palestinian people to ruin and disaster. A new path must be forged, one that prioritizes diplomacy, coexistence, and rebuilding trust.

Without a doubt, respecting individual freedoms and adopting democracy as a fundamental framework for societal development is a guarantee for the security of all nations. The Palestinians must change their misguided approach of boycotting everything Israeli, including the democratic forces within Israel, under the pretext of opposing “normalization.” Instead of this futile policy that leads to a dead end, a creative leadership is needed to present a plan for building Palestinian society in partnership with progressive elements in Israel.

This equation also requires an Israeli component. Liberal and democratic forces in Israel must reassess their positions and put an end to the notion that the conflict with the Palestinians can be “managed” and its resolution postponed to a distant future. Leaving the occupation and apartheid regime in the territories intact—even while taking steps to “reduce the conflict”—creates fertile ground for the growth of racist and fascist forces and fuels the flames of judicial overhaul and the dismantling of democracy. The result is the establishment of an anti-liberal, religious, messianic regime, with the Nation-State Law of 2018 serving as its wake-up call, leading to the judicial coup of Minister of Justice Yariv Levin in 2023.

The pro-democracy protest movement, which demonstrated for months against the far-right government, proved that there are resilient and influential democratic forces in Israel with widespread public support who are aware of the dangers. This movement must break free from conservative thinking and adopt radical solutions based on partnerships of peace and democracy with the peoples of the region. Peace and mutual recognition with the Palestinians are central components that will secure the future of all nations, as well as the stability and rebuilding of Israeli society itself.

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Fall of the Assad Regime: The End of the Iranian-Russian Axis first appeared on Da'am Party: One state - Green Economy.

Note: This piece was written days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is more relevant than ever.

When Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid was asked about his position on Ukraine, he was quick to explain the complexity of the situation in which Israel finds itself. Not only are there large Jewish communities in Russia and Ukraine, he said, but of all Western countries, Israel alone is bordered by Russia! Yes, no more and no less. Since 2015 Russia has been present on the northeast border of Israel (more exactly, on what Israel considers its border). At the request of Syria’s Bashar Assad, in the midst of his bloody civil war with democratic forces, Russia took over in Syria with the full consent of Israel and the willing blindness of the West. After that Putin became Israel’s strategic ally, together with Donald Trump, and the two allowed Israel to do as it pleased in Syria, Iran and the Occupied Territories.  Hence the hems and haws of Israel concerning Ukraine.

Putin did not simply take over Syria, he committed genocide and other crimes against humanity there. He transformed entire cities into ruins, causing a humanitarian catastrophe that continues to this day. In December 2016, Human Rights Watch published a report entitled War Crimes in the month of the bombing of Aleppo, in which 440 civilians were killed, including 90 children. All of this came after President Obama drew a red line for the Syrian regime against the use of chemical weapons. This line did not prevent Assad from using such weapons against his citizens, and Obama then made do with a proposal by Putin to remove chemical weapons from Syria in coordination with Israel. This paved the way for Putin’s takeover of Syria, including the Latakia Port and the Khmeimim Air Base. From then until today, the understandings between the Israeli government and Putin are clear: Russia will not deprive Israel of freedom of action in the air above Syria, and in return Israel will not interfere with Russia’s actions anywhere else, which today means Ukraine.

As the crisis in Ukraine worsens, Israel is exposed in all its shame. Bibi Netanyahu, we recall, had warm relations with Putin and Trump, both of whom helped in his election campaigns. Putin gave Israel the bodies of its soldiers who had been buried in Syria, while Trump gave Bibi an embassy in Jerusalem and recognition of Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights. Putin helped Trump in the 2016 election campaign, and Bibi bluntly intervened in Congress against Obama and the nuclear deal with Iran. This alliance was undoubtedly ideal for Bibi while it lasted. With the rise of Joe Biden, however, the celebration ended, but Israel’s “government of change” refuses to acknowledge the new reality.

According to Israel, the danger to world peace is Iran and not Russia. Israel’s position is that compared to Iran, whose fundamentalist regime seeks regional dominance, Ukraine is an intra-regional problem. Asked about his position on Ukraine, Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman said he was not at all interested. What interests him, he said, is what is happening in Vienna, where a new nuclear agreement between the West and Iran is afoot. For the U.S. and the West, however, Iran is a regional issue with marginal impact on world peace, whereas Putin, via Ukraine, wants to change the world-order, bringing Europe back to the days before the fall of the USSR. Russia, they point out, is not alone in having territorial claims. So do Serbia, Romania, Turkey, Greece, and Poland (vis-à-vis the Czech Republic). A Russian occupation of Ukraine will take us back to the 19^th century border conflicts.

It is no secret that Putin is using Russia’s army to gain points in the face of his domestic failures. Russia is a backward country that has nothing to offer its people. The USSR disbanded because of the nature of the totalitarian communist regime, whose corruption pervaded all spheres of life. Putin’s Russia renounced socialism and the nationalized economy, but it remained centralized and totalitarian: the oligarchy replaced the communist bureaucracy and took over the country’s resources. It is a failed state not because of the US or NATO, but because of Putin. The oligarchs he nurtured plundered the country’s treasures. They smuggled their wealth to the West, settling in London, Europe and North America with the kind help of Britain, Germany and even the United States. Despite its richness in minerals, Russia’s GDP remains at $10,000 per capita, compared to $60,000 in the United States and $40,000 in Israel. An occupied Ukraine, which is even poorer, will not cure the ills of Russian society, but only aggravate the suffering of Russians and Ukrainians alike.

Putin’s ideology and course of action are very much in line with Israel’s ideology and course of action. Israel also views military power as its chief means of achieving political goals. Its military force imposes the status quo in the West Bank and Gaza, deters Iran and motivates the alliance with the Gulf states. In this respect, the American reluctance to go to war, its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan and the diversion of attention to the economic confrontation with China are all perceived in Israel as signs of weakness. The prevailing Israeli perception is that the world is a jungle, military power is the guarantee for the existence of the state, and it must not look too closely at friendly dictatorial regimes and the atrocities they inflict. On the contrary, best give them full backing— and sell them Pegasus spyware.

Israel is now torn between loyalty to Putin, its ideological ally, and America, its strategic ally. Biden is a liberal who opposes Trump and everything he represents. He tries to revive the welfare state, seeks to impose taxes on the internet giants, supports the rights of minorities (especially blacks), conducts a conscious climate policy, opposes totalitarian regimes, boycotts Saudi Arabia’s Mohammad bin Salman (responsible for the murder of journalist  Jamal Khashoggi), abhors the Chinese regime, opposes the theory of racial superiority, and fights xenophobia. All of these qualities are incompatible with Zionist nationalist ideology, with Israel’s citizenship law and nation-state law, and with the apartheid it practices toward Arabs. Thus, Israel’s strategic ally is an ideological adversary, while tactical allies such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the Emirates, Morocco, Egypt and Sudan give Israel the leeway to do what it pleases in the Middle East.

The position of the Da’am Workers Party toward Putin did not have to wait for his aggression against Ukraine. It was already determined by the genocide he committed in Syria. Those who did not stop him in Syria now receive him at the gates of Ukraine. Putin is not only the enemy of America and the democratic West, he is the enemy of all those young people in Syria, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and the rest of the world who aspire to live free in the 21st century. The West’s struggle against Putin brings hope back to the hearts of millions of Syrians, Egyptians, and Iraqis who have taken to the streets to overthrow dictatorial regimes under the slogan “Bread, freedom and social justice!” Putin’s defeat will be the victory of all who demand these things. Da’am stands squarely on the side of Ukrainians who refuse to accept a life shorn of human rights like the life imposed by Putin on Russia.

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Still bodies of babies, women and children, murdered by the chlorine gas – these are the recent victory pictures that Bashar Assad wants us to remember. Assad triumphed the Syrian people, he triumphed Syria and the human spirit. Five years ago, the butcher from Damascus has slaughtered more than one thousand Syrian civilians in Eastern Ghouta and crossed the red line posed by President Obama. However, he was saved from a military blow thanks to his accomplice, President Putin, which reached an agreement with Obama to disarm the Syrian regime from chemical weapon. Obama already completed his two presidential terms and the British Cameron resigned from his post, but Assad, Khamenei and Putin are here to stay, together with the poisonous gas which kill the poor who did not manage to find a haven.

These are the hands of Assad that kill and poison the Syrian people, but the responsibility lies upon the Turkish-Iranian-Russian Trinity whose leaders met a couple of days ago in Ankara to divide the booty. They agreed to divide Syria and leave Assad in power despite his responsibility for the destruction of the state and to the flee of millions of Syrians, hereby providing him the political legitimacy to annihilate the people of Douma.

Some people wonder why Assad used the gas against helpless men and women while Douma is besieged and ISIS started negotiating on leaving the town and giving it to the Russians. The answer is quite simple: Assad wanted to enforce himself on his allies. Whereas Russian wanted to skip Assad in the negotiations, whereas the Trinity wanted to ignore him in discussing the solution, his reply was immediate: Douma would have to surrender to Assad and the most practical way to accomplish this task would be using the chlorine gas.

The other half of the answer to this question is simple too. Since using a chemical weaponry against the people of Eastern Ghouta five years ago, Assad found out that there are no more red lines. The Russian cover on the one hand, and the unwillingness of the US and its allies to act decisively to stop the atrocities on the other hand, enabled him to do whatever he pleased, without paying the price for his crimes. Thus, Assad, Putin and Erdogan, along any despicable rule across the globe, knew that all means are legitimate to retain their rule: murder, destruction, exiling people and the use of chemical weapon were proved to be efficient, hereby becoming the winning cards who have saved the evil regime.

What is going in Syria serves as a pretext at the hands of Israel’s government following the fact that the international community condemned Israel for killing Palestinian demonstrators across the border between Israel and Gaza. Israel’s Defense Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, accuses the world of hypocrisy as the latter accuses Israel but refrains from accusing Russia and the Syrian regime. Moreover, Lieberman draws a comparison between the “humanitarian” approach of the Israeli occupation and the cruelty of the Arab regimes, boasting in Israel’s democracy vis-à-vis the tyrannies in the neighboring countries.

The truth is that Lieberman, like his right-wing government, is indifferent to the atrocities in Syria, although he has influence over determining the fate of Syria and its regime through his tight coordination with the Russians. Israel’s refusal to join the US and the EU in condemning Russia for its use in gas against the Russian spy on British soil, is not less hypocritic than the way other countries are conducting. Assad’s cruelty against the Syrians doesn’t justify the cruelty of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian people as well as the fact that for fifty years Israel is busy in violating the political and civil rights of the Palestinians.

The Daam party condemns the Syrian regime and its allies and call upon the people of conscience, along with the friends of the Palestinian people, who support its rights and freedom, to endorse the Syrian people and its noble revolution against the evil regime of Assad. Whoever refuses to resist the despot, whoever justifies regime’s war crimes in the name of the struggle against Zionism and imperialism, loses the moral, political and legal basis to condemn Israel which is oppressing the Palestinian people. The fate of the Palestinians is bound with the fate of the Arab people, first and foremost the Syrian people. As long as the Arab people will be subordinated to tyrannical regimes – in Egypt, Syria, Jordan or Iraq – the Palestinian people will continue to be occupied. The collapse of Israel’s occupation depends on the collapse of the despotic Arab regimes, first and foremost the Syrian one.

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As with his entry into Syria, Putin’s departure comes as a surprise and leaves us guessing about his intentions. Today, as in October 2015, the world looks with amazement at the all-powerful Vladimir Putin, the leader of Russia, who appears to be the only one who knows how to capitalize on American weakness and restore Russia’s international status. Indeed, there is a huge contrast between Putin, who sent planes to bomb Syrian cities, and Obama, who demurred about taking any action to implement his demands that Bashar al-Assad step aside. American passivity fueled Russian activism. So far, however, neither Putin nor Obama has taken steps to end the bloodshed and the terrible destruction in Syria.

Since no one knows what Putin’s goals were when he deployed the Russian air force to Syria, there is no one who can specify for certain his motives for withdrawal. It may be possible to attribute this to his political genius, but it might equally be true that the whole venture is a folly that has entangled Russia in a conflict whose outcome is unpredictable.

There is little doubt that Putin’s intervention was intended to save the Assad regime from collapse. In this he failed. Assad will not survive despite massive support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shiite militias. Even though the Syrian opposition is unable to defend itself from Russian and Syrian air power, and even though it has no counter to the supply of Russian weapons, and despite the West’s inaction, the Assad regime remains teetering on the verge of collapse, its military crumbling. Even after the terrible destruction inflicted on Syria – 350,000 deaths, millions of refugees, destroyed cities and starving citizens – the picture has not changed.

Despite its claim to be fighting the Islamic State (ISIS), Russia focused its attacks on areas controlled by the moderate Syrian opposition, which sees ISIS as an enemy. The results of Russian involvement in Syria are devastating: 2000 killed in aerial bombardments, the complete destruction of clinics, markets, schools and homes in areas controlled by the moderate Syrian opposition, and tens of thousands of refugees, who have fled the fighting and are trying to escape to the West. Many of the more recent refugees are now on the border with Turkey. Turkey refuses to let them enter its territory, so they are abandoned to harsh weather and appalling living conditions. The desert region in Syria is controlled by ISIS. It was never bombed, and life there goes on as usual. Thus, Russia is contributing to the growing humanitarian disaster in Syria without diminishing ISIS’s hold over territory.

Putin’s “achievements” are meager. He weakened the democratic opposition to Assad. He accomplished this with the help of Kurdish forces, who exploited Russian bombing to join forces with Assad and grab territory from the opposition. Putin did return some vital areas to Assad’s control. These include the supply routes between Turkey and the besieged city of Aleppo. However, here Putin was forced to stop. Neither Assad nor Putin are able to conquer Aleppo. All attempts to cut off the city from its Turkish hinterground may lead to direct intervention by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which have repeatedly stated that this is a red line for them.

Putin’s main goal was to defeat the opposition, and replace it with an “opposition” loyal to the Assad regime. For a long time Moscow acted to create an alternative to the opposition democratic forces. These efforts were concentrated on the Kurdish Democratic Party (PYD). However, the Turkish veto thwarted the Russians. They were compelled, in effect, to declare a ceasefire before completing their mission. The new round of negotiations in Geneva between the opposition and the Syrian regime marks, for now, the end of the Russian military campaign. Assad, unlike the Russians, does not want a ceasefire, and has no interest in renewing negotiations. Hence, the statement of the Syrian Foreign Minister, Walid Muallem, that Assad’s future is not up for discussion. This position highlights the gap between the Syrian regime and its Russian benefactor.

The ceasefire was used by the democratic opposition in Syria to come out and protest against the regime. Non-violent mass demonstrations, which took place in the streets of the bombed-out cities, were reminiscent of protests at the beginning of the revolution. Despite the death and destruction that have been visited on the Syrian people in the past five years, they have not given up and refuse to return to the days of dictatorship. These demonstrations will not affect Putin. Like all dictators, he holds life and human rights in contempt. But they make it clear that aerial bombing will not decide the outcome of the war. There is no chance that Assad’s disintegrating regime will overcome civil resistance to his rule. Putin was sorely mistaken when he came to protect this bloody regime; a regime that had lost all legitimacy in the eyes of its people and in the eyes of the international community. His efforts to save a government accused of committing crimes against humanity reveals the fact that Putin lacks all moral boundaries.

Putin has no winning cards. His “tactical flexibility” of withdrawal cannot determine Syria’s future, and all attempts to save the Assad regime will only prolong the war and increase the flow of refugees to Europe. Russia itself is edging toward economic collapse. It does not have much to offer the Syrian economy except arms. Iran and Hezbollah will not contribute anything to help rebuild Syria. Russia may have a formidable air force, but it is no a position to financially help Syria and influence its future. Putin knows how to destroy, but he leaves reconstruction to others. Indeed, the Syrian people need an enormous influx of economic aid from the international community so that they can rebuild what Assad destroyed.

Russian withdrawal from Syria is symptomatic of Assad’s failed policy of relying on a military solution. It also shows that ISIS was never an enemy of the regime, but an enemy of the Syrian revolution and its democratic agenda. Despite all the words spilled about the danger of ISIS, the Russian and Syrian regimes never really engaged them militarily. To defeat ISIS, one must first remove the rationale that led to its proliferation, i.e. Assad. Today the Syrian regime is forced to negotiate with the opposition; it has agreed to a ceasefire, and eventually will be forced to give up the battle cry: “Assad or the country burns!”

Putin understands that Assad will not return to be the leader of Syria, so he clings to the idea of dividing the country along sectarian lines. This will enable him to continue to control the seaport and the airport near the Alawite-controlled coastal city of Latakia. That is why he helped the Kurds to establish their autonomous region in northern Syria. But the majority of the Syrian people oppose this idea because it leaves Syria in conflict, divided, and easy prey to repeated interference from Iran, Hezbollah, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Dividing the country will also strengthen ISIS and thwart plans for rebuilding. The only basis for the rehabilitation of Syria is the creation of a democratic regime.

The proposal of dividing Syria into enclaves is actually a replication of the Iraq and Lebanon model, which will only perpetuate internal conflicts, sectarian violence and instability. The attempt to impose this model on Syria will intensify extremism, increase the suffering of civilians and leave ISIS as a major player in the region. If the Syrian people will not unite around a democratic constitution that guarantees the rights of all citizens, regardless of religion or sect, the civil war in Syria will continue even after Assad falls.

• Translated from the Hebrew by Robert Goldman

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