Israel is looking ahead. The year 2050 is a central theme of the Ministry of the Environment, linking the destiny of Israel to the planet’s future. Climate experts predict a humanitarian disaster if we continue to burn fossil fuels, which are the main cause of global warming. The temperature has already risen one degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level (the year 1850), and an additional degree by century’s end will doom the earth.

On December 9, 2018, the United Nations will launch its 24th climate conference in Katowice, Poland. Many eyes are on this event, trusting that world leaders will take decisive steps. However, the debate goes on. US President Donald Trump denies global warming. Another absurdity is that the host country, Poland, refuses to close its fossil fuel (coal) power stations because they employ 110,000 coal miners. Germany likewise refuses to close them, for it employs many thousands in mining.

Israel is not indifferent to climate change. This week the third Israeli climate conference was held in Tel Aviv with about 500 participants. The attendance of NGOs, MKs, academics, directors-general, and government representatives, including Environment Minister Ze’ev Elkin, attests that a large part of the public takes interest in environmental issues. Although Israel is a tiny country and its influence on the climate is slight, its desire to contribute is clear. Its goal is to formulate a master plan that will respond to the challenges facing Israel in 2050.

Those who missed the third climate conference and want to learn more can attend a discussion entitled “Environment 2050”, which will be held in Tel Aviv on January 15, 2019. Industry leaders, senior government officials, heads of venture capital funds, start-ups, innovation managers, representatives of environmental organizations, academics, and citizens will participate. The race for 2050 has already begun, and all sectors want to be at the starting gate.

The problem is that while the world seeks to battle against a one-degree rise in temperature. Israel is grappling with an equally complex problem not raised at the third Israeli climate conference: In 2050, experts say, there will be 16 million Israelis. But what about the 10 million Palestinians next door in Gaza and the West Bank? How many of the 16 million Israelis will be settlers? What will happen in Gaza when the wells dry up and sewage flows freely? How much electricity will the Gazan power plants generate? How will the city of Jerusalem function with a million Palestinians (whose poverty rate even now is more than 70%)? What kind of transportation network will serve the 5 million West Bank Palestinians in 2050? As work gives way to robotics and artificial intelligence, will there be jobs for them? How many walls and fences will there have to be, and how high, to prevent desperate Palestinians from surging into Israel looking for jobs? Can the start-up nation continue to flourish when the surrounding region is poverty-stricken and backward?

The presence of Environmental Protection Minister Ze’ev Elkin at the third climate conference may signify a bold approach to the future, but that future is conceived as if there were no Palestinians. Elkin told the conference that Israel disagrees with Trump on climate change, but he neglected to say that it agrees with the American president on all other issues, including nationalistic ideology, xenophobia, and the Occupation. Elkin makes no secret of his views. What counts most is not what is good for the earth, but what is good for the Jews according to the Trumplike principle: Israel first.

Considering the precarious political situation, the question is where Israeli environmentalists stand—in other words, what happens to an enlightened Israeli civil society that wants to save humanity but has lost the courage to face local reality? During the 20 years of right-wing government, the word “Occupation” has become a shibboleth, used, in the view of the ruling coalition, by traitors. Proponents of Palestinian rights are perceived as extremists. Right-wingers like Elkin are prepared to act for the sake of the environment and in the same breath to deprive Palestinians of their rights.

Palestinians, like most of the poor and forgotten in the third world, are paying the price of globalization and neoliberal economics. They have no environmentalist movement. Their struggle to put bread on the table leaves little room for the welfare of the planet. They have already lost their country, and with it their dignity. It suffices to look at Gaza today to see what the future holds.

If the right-wing Zionist ideology continues to dictate Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians, Israel will be a footnote to history in 2050. However, if Israelis can have enough foresight to worry about the planet, then let them have enough to create a new political reality; they must see Palestinians as partners not only to save the planet but also to build a modern society for the benefit of both peoples.

Two worldviews are struggling over humanity’s fate. On the one hand, there is the racist nationalism of Trump and his supporters, both in Europe and Israel. On the other hand, there are those who support international solidarity. These consist of governments and movements that advocate cross-border cooperation for the benefit of humanity and the planet. Contemporary Zionism, in the form of both the ruling coalition and the opposition, has chosen to sidestep the Palestinian issue because an outdated national ideology leaves no room for compromise. Whoever wants to save Planet Earth must direct national interest toward a greater interest. Whoever wants there to be an Israel in 2050 must forgo the narrow national interest in favor of a common destiny for Israelis and Palestinians alike.

* Translated from the Hebrew by Robert Goldman

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After a well-publicized visit to Oman, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addressed the Likud faction in the Knesset saying: “The occupation is nonsense.” This is not a slip of the tongue or a jab at the Left. On the surface, it is a reasonable statement backed by facts. First, the three Jewish wise men responsible for American policy vis-à-vis the Palestinians – Kushner, Greenblatt, and Friedman – are acting on the assumption that the occupation is nonsense. Their puppet master in Washington, Donald Trump, believes he took the occupation off the table when he transferred the American embassy to Jerusalem. He also concocted the “deal of the century” aimed at “recognizing reality,” that is, allowing West Bank settlements to remain intact. According to Trump’s plan, the Palestinian Authority will become an extended autonomy, a state-minus.

Anyone who thinks the “deal of the century” is another of Trump’s sleights-of-hand to satisfy his evangelical voters will be surprised to hear that this inchoate plan receives the full backing of the Gulf states, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (a.k.a. MBS), the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia. MBS’s backing for Trump’s deal stems from a change in America’s Middle Eastern policy, namely, ditching the nuclear agreement with Iran and full-throated support for the crown prince’s quiet and violent revolution against his opponents at home. Senior Saudi journalist Abdulrahman Al-Rasheed, a columnist for Asharq al-Awsat, backs Saudi support for Trump and accuses the Palestinians of being unrealistic: “With the passage of time, and because of their constant rejectionist stance and inflammatory rhetoric, their rights have been eroded.” (Asharq al-Awsat, Sept. 18, 2018).

Netanyahu explained to members of Likud that “power is the key” and that “power changes everything in our policy toward Arab countries.” During rare visits, public and clandestine, to the Gulf States, Israeli politicians hear encouraging words from the region’s leaders that reinforce the feeling that indeed “the occupation is nonsense.” The reason is clear. Iran is a strategic threat to Arab regimes, and Netanyahu is a main player in the war to curb Iranian influence. Thus, the Trump-Netanyahu duo is the best guarantee to prolong the stability of those regimes after the tsunami created by the Arab Spring.

The same Abdulrahman al-Rasheed praised Sultan Qaboos of Oman and stated that the days of boycotting Israel have passed. He attributed this to Israel’s role in Syria: “Israel was once considered a poisonous bulge that everyone feared, but now a new balance of military power has been created, and Israel is an important factor in the region’s security” (Asharq al-Awsat, October 28). The new Arab doctrine can be defined as follows: We, the Arab regimes, are undergoing a turbulent period that threatens our very existence. The disappearance of Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq as political entities has created fertile ground for the spread of Iran. Our existential danger trumps the woes of Palestinians, who for the 25 years since the Oslo Accords have not been able to solve their problem. Israel’s military and technological power is extremely important to us as a counterweight to the Iranian threat.

In other words, the Palestinian problem may be off the table, no longer an Arab problem, and Netanyahu may be encouraged by Trump’s support plus the strategic shift in the Arab world, but turning the Palestinian question into an internal Israeli problem does not make it disappear. On the contrary, the Palestinian question falls squarely on Israel’s shoulders, since five million Palestinians have not disappeared.

The occupation may have become nonsense, but the recent downpour of 500 missiles on Israel’s southern cities is not nonsensical. The same goes for the weekly Gazan protests at the fence, not to mention the humanitarian disaster in the Strip. These are serious problems for Israel, and Netanyahu has no solution. He defended his agreement to allow an injection of Qatari cash into Gaza to pay the salaries of Hamas officials in exchange for stopping the demonstrations. “There is no diplomatic solution for Gaza just as there is no diplomatic solution for ISIS,” Netanyahu said, adding that he is willing to pay a political price for an arrangement with Hamas whereby the blockade on Gaza is eased and the border quiets down.

Even if the occupation is nonsense, Netanyahu will carry on paying for his lack of policy and his reliance on dubious friends from the Gulf. The absurdity of his position was revealed in full force this week. He negotiates with Hamas, with whom he admits it is impossible to reach a political arrangement, and he refuses to negotiate with Abu Mazen, who is willing to reach one. Negotiating with Abu Mazen would force Netanyahu to make concessions, which is a red line for him.

Considering the intra-Palestinian conflict, as evidenced in the disconnect between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, an “arrangement” between Hamas and Israel is impossible. The PA objects to any such, including the financial backing by Qatar. An arrangement is seen as lending a hand to the Trump “deal” and abandoning the idea of a Palestinian state. This forces Hamas to declare that it is not deserting the path of armed resistance which negates any settlement with the occupier.

Israel’s strength tempts the Arab dictatorships, but Israel does not address its internal Palestinian problem. Worse, the past week has revealed how fragile Netanyahu’s coalition is. First, the midterm election results in the US were very irritating to Trump, who ignored the political upheaval and hoarsely claimed a “tremendous victory.” However, in reality, women and young people, driven by loathing for him and all he represents, flipped the House of Representatives to the Democrats. Explosive envelopes targeting Democrats, and the carnage in the Pittsburgh synagogue, show where Trump’s incitement leads. Netanyahu should be concerned that the results in the US do not bode well for him and his Gulf cronies.

Second, the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, under MBS’s command, shows how much the position of the Saudi leader has been undermined. The fact that Netanyahu invested much of his political capital in dubious figures like Trump and MBS points to his nearsightedness. Just as Netanyahu claims the occupation to be nonsense, Trump boasts about winning the midterms. The reality is different in both cases. Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s resignation foreshadows how much the events in Gaza will cost Netanyahu. The eventual disappearance of Trump and MBS will leave Israel facing an even more difficult political scene. The American democratic establishment is disgusted with Netanyahu, while the Arab regimes on which he relies are weak, corrupt and alienated from their peoples.

Netanyahu is flying solo into a gloomy night. He is responsible for the fate of the 5 million Palestinians under Israeli occupation, even if in his stupidity he calls it “nonsense,” while the future of his cheerleaders in the White House and in the courts of the Gulf is shrouded in doubt.

 * Translated from the Hebrew by Robert Goldman

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